Everyone reckons. Few are right.

Yes-or-no questions about South Africa. R10 000 free to play with. Find out if you actually know.

Load-shedding. The Vaal Dam. The petrol price. Who wins the ward.

YaNoBru turns the arguments South Africans are already having into questions with one answer and one date. Everyone starts with R10 000 of play money, no deposits, nothing to lose, and every price on the board is set by what the rest of the country reckons.

At the end of the season the best forecasters top the boards. Not the luckiest, not the loudest. The ones who were right about the odds.

Open questions

71 questions. Every one has a yes or no answer, a date, and a source you can check yourself. Why so few?

All 71money 10screens 16sport 6the draw 5the vote 12utilities 22

Closing today 1

the draw

Will anyone win the PowerBall jackpot on 07 August 2026?

Division 1 needs all five numbers plus the PowerBall. Most draws nobody gets it and the jackpot rolls over, which is exactly why the ones that do land are news.

22c
market-implied chance of yes
CLOSES 07 AUG 2026, 20:30 SASTNational Lottery, results and prize breakdown

This week 3

utilities

Will the Vaal Dam still be over 100% full in the week of 11 August 2026?

The Vaal supplies Gauteng and can hold more than 100% of its official capacity after good rain. It has been sitting just above the line. This asks whether it holds.

72c
market-implied chance of yes
CLOSES 10 AUG 2026, 00:00 SASTDWS, weekly state of the reservoirs
screens

Will 3 or more South African shows be in the Netflix SA top 10 in the week of 11 August 2026?

Netflix publishes its South African top 10 every week. Local titles like The River and The Polygamist have been holding spots against international shows.

38c
market-implied chance of yes
CLOSES 11 AUG 2026, 06:00 SASTNetflix, South Africa top 10
the draw

Will anyone win the PowerBall jackpot on 11 August 2026?

Division 1 needs all five numbers plus the PowerBall. Most draws nobody gets it and the jackpot rolls over, which is exactly why the ones that do land are news.

22c
market-implied chance of yes
CLOSES 11 AUG 2026, 20:30 SASTNational Lottery, results and prize breakdown

This month 15

the draw

Will anyone win the PowerBall jackpot on 14 August 2026?

Division 1 needs all five numbers plus the PowerBall. Most draws nobody gets it and the jackpot rolls over, which is exactly why the ones that do land are news.

22c
market-implied chance of yes
CLOSES 14 AUG 2026, 20:30 SASTNational Lottery, results and prize breakdown
utilities

Will the Vaal Dam still be over 100% full in the week of 18 August 2026?

The Vaal supplies Gauteng and can hold more than 100% of its official capacity after good rain. It has been sitting just above the line. This asks whether it holds.

72c
market-implied chance of yes
CLOSES 17 AUG 2026, 00:00 SASTDWS, weekly state of the reservoirs
screens

Will 3 or more South African shows be in the Netflix SA top 10 in the week of 18 August 2026?

Netflix publishes its South African top 10 every week. Local titles like The River and The Polygamist have been holding spots against international shows.

38c
market-implied chance of yes
CLOSES 18 AUG 2026, 06:00 SASTNetflix, South Africa top 10
the draw

Will anyone win the PowerBall jackpot on 18 August 2026?

Division 1 needs all five numbers plus the PowerBall. Most draws nobody gets it and the jackpot rolls over, which is exactly why the ones that do land are news.

22c
market-implied chance of yes
CLOSES 18 AUG 2026, 20:30 SASTNational Lottery, results and prize breakdown
the draw

Will anyone win the PowerBall jackpot on 21 August 2026?

Division 1 needs all five numbers plus the PowerBall. Most draws nobody gets it and the jackpot rolls over, which is exactly why the ones that do land are news.

22c
market-implied chance of yes
CLOSES 21 AUG 2026, 20:30 SASTNational Lottery, results and prize breakdown
sport

Will the Springboks beat the All Blacks on 22 August 2026?

Four Tests in three weeks, Ellis Park, Cape Town, FNB, then Baltimore. The Rugby Championship was scrapped this year to make room for it. A draw resolves No.

52c
market-implied chance of yes
CLOSES 22 AUG 2026, 16:45 SASTSA Rugby, match centre
utilities

Will the Vaal Dam still be over 100% full in the week of 25 August 2026?

The Vaal supplies Gauteng and can hold more than 100% of its official capacity after good rain. It has been sitting just above the line. This asks whether it holds.

72c
market-implied chance of yes
CLOSES 24 AUG 2026, 00:00 SASTDWS, weekly state of the reservoirs
screens

Will 3 or more South African shows be in the Netflix SA top 10 in the week of 25 August 2026?

Netflix publishes its South African top 10 every week. Local titles like The River and The Polygamist have been holding spots against international shows.

38c
market-implied chance of yes
CLOSES 25 AUG 2026, 06:00 SASTNetflix, South Africa top 10
money

Will the petrol price go up in September 2026?

The petrol price is reset at the start of every month by the Department of Mineral and Petroleum Resources, driven by the oil price and the rand. Any increase at all resolves this Yes.

42c
market-implied chance of yes
CLOSES 26 AUG 2026, 06:00 SASTDMPR, monthly fuel price
sport

Will the Springboks beat the All Blacks on 29 August 2026?

Four Tests in three weeks, Ellis Park, Cape Town, FNB, then Baltimore. The Rugby Championship was scrapped this year to make room for it. A draw resolves No.

52c
market-implied chance of yes
CLOSES 29 AUG 2026, 16:45 SASTSA Rugby, match centre
utilities

Will the Vaal Dam still be over 100% full in the week of 01 September 2026?

The Vaal supplies Gauteng and can hold more than 100% of its official capacity after good rain. It has been sitting just above the line. This asks whether it holds.

72c
market-implied chance of yes
CLOSES 31 AUG 2026, 00:00 SASTDWS, weekly state of the reservoirs
utilities

Will Eskom implement any load-shedding in August 2026?

South Africa has gone more than 440 days without load-shedding, the last cut being 16 May 2025, and Eskom met demand 100% of the time from April to July. One hour of Stage 1 anywhere in the month resolves this Yes.

12c
market-implied chance of yes
CLOSES 31 AUG 2026, 23:59 SASTEskom, power system status
screens

Will 3 or more South African shows be in the Netflix SA top 10 in the week of 01 September 2026?

Netflix publishes its South African top 10 every week. Local titles like The River and The Polygamist have been holding spots against international shows.

38c
market-implied chance of yes
CLOSES 01 SEP 2026, 06:00 SASTNetflix, South Africa top 10
sport

Will the Springboks beat the All Blacks on 05 September 2026?

Four Tests in three weeks, Ellis Park, Cape Town, FNB, then Baltimore. The Rugby Championship was scrapped this year to make room for it. A draw resolves No.

52c
market-implied chance of yes
CLOSES 05 SEP 2026, 16:45 SASTSA Rugby, match centre
utilities

Will the Vaal Dam still be over 100% full in the week of 08 September 2026?

The Vaal supplies Gauteng and can hold more than 100% of its official capacity after good rain. It has been sitting just above the line. This asks whether it holds.

72c
market-implied chance of yes
CLOSES 07 SEP 2026, 00:00 SASTDWS, weekly state of the reservoirs

Later 52

screens

Will 3 or more South African shows be in the Netflix SA top 10 in the week of 08 September 2026?

Netflix publishes its South African top 10 every week. Local titles like The River and The Polygamist have been holding spots against international shows.

38c
market-implied chance of yes
CLOSES 08 SEP 2026, 06:00 SASTNetflix, South Africa top 10
sport

Will the Springboks win the 12 September 2026 series against the All Blacks?

Four Tests, and you need three of them. Two-all leaves the series drawn and resolves this No.

30c
market-implied chance of yes
CLOSES 12 SEP 2026, 19:00 SASTSA Rugby, match centre
sport

Will the Springboks beat the All Blacks on 12 September 2026?

Four Tests in three weeks, Ellis Park, Cape Town, FNB, then Baltimore. The Rugby Championship was scrapped this year to make room for it. A draw resolves No.

52c
market-implied chance of yes
CLOSES 12 SEP 2026, 20:45 SASTSA Rugby, match centre
utilities

Will the Vaal Dam still be over 100% full in the week of 15 September 2026?

The Vaal supplies Gauteng and can hold more than 100% of its official capacity after good rain. It has been sitting just above the line. This asks whether it holds.

72c
market-implied chance of yes
CLOSES 14 SEP 2026, 00:00 SASTDWS, weekly state of the reservoirs
screens

Will 3 or more South African shows be in the Netflix SA top 10 in the week of 15 September 2026?

Netflix publishes its South African top 10 every week. Local titles like The River and The Polygamist have been holding spots against international shows.

38c
market-implied chance of yes
CLOSES 15 SEP 2026, 06:00 SASTNetflix, South Africa top 10
utilities

Will the Vaal Dam still be over 100% full in the week of 22 September 2026?

The Vaal supplies Gauteng and can hold more than 100% of its official capacity after good rain. It has been sitting just above the line. This asks whether it holds.

72c
market-implied chance of yes
CLOSES 21 SEP 2026, 00:00 SASTDWS, weekly state of the reservoirs
screens

Will 3 or more South African shows be in the Netflix SA top 10 in the week of 22 September 2026?

Netflix publishes its South African top 10 every week. Local titles like The River and The Polygamist have been holding spots against international shows.

38c
market-implied chance of yes
CLOSES 22 SEP 2026, 06:00 SASTNetflix, South Africa top 10
money

Will inflation come in above 4.5% for August 2026?

The Reserve Bank now steers towards 3%, having moved off the old 3 to 6% band whose midpoint was 4.5%. That makes 4.5% the line between uncomfortable and alarming rather than the target itself. June 2026 came in at 5.0%.

68c
market-implied chance of yes
CLOSES 23 SEP 2026, 09:00 SASTStats SA, Consumer Price Index
money

Will the Reserve Bank raise the repo rate at the 23 September 2026 meeting?

After a year of cuts the mood has flipped. The MPC held at 7% in July on a 4-2 split, having hiked in May for the first time since 2023. The Governor warned about inflation on the upside and June's CPI printed 5.0%. A hike is genuinely on the table.

35c
market-implied chance of yes
CLOSES 23 SEP 2026, 09:00 SASTSARB, MPC statements
money

Will the petrol price go up in October 2026?

The petrol price is reset at the start of every month by the Department of Mineral and Petroleum Resources, driven by the oil price and the rand. Any increase at all resolves this Yes.

42c
market-implied chance of yes
CLOSES 26 SEP 2026, 06:00 SASTDMPR, monthly fuel price
utilities

Will the Vaal Dam still be over 100% full in the week of 29 September 2026?

The Vaal supplies Gauteng and can hold more than 100% of its official capacity after good rain. It has been sitting just above the line. This asks whether it holds.

72c
market-implied chance of yes
CLOSES 28 SEP 2026, 00:00 SASTDWS, weekly state of the reservoirs
screens

Will 3 or more South African shows be in the Netflix SA top 10 in the week of 29 September 2026?

Netflix publishes its South African top 10 every week. Local titles like The River and The Polygamist have been holding spots against international shows.

38c
market-implied chance of yes
CLOSES 29 SEP 2026, 06:00 SASTNetflix, South Africa top 10
utilities

Will Cape Town hit 35°C in September 2026?

Measured at the Cape Town International Airport station, which is the official record for the city. One hot day is all it takes.

30c
market-implied chance of yes
CLOSES 30 SEP 2026, 23:59 SASTSouth African Weather Service
utilities

Will Eskom implement any load-shedding in September 2026?

South Africa has gone more than 440 days without load-shedding, the last cut being 16 May 2025, and Eskom met demand 100% of the time from April to July. One hour of Stage 1 anywhere in the month resolves this Yes.

12c
market-implied chance of yes
CLOSES 30 SEP 2026, 23:59 SASTEskom, power system status
the vote

Will the Madlanga Commission deliver its final report by 16 November 2026?

The inquiry into police and organised crime, set up after Lieutenant-General Mkhwanazi's allegations. Its reporting deadline was extended in July from 31 August to 16 November, with evidence closing on 2 October. Trading stops at the evidence deadline, because the report can be handed over any time after that.

40c
market-implied chance of yes
CLOSES 02 OCT 2026, 12:00 SASTThe Presidency, media statements
utilities

Will the Vaal Dam still be over 100% full in the week of 06 October 2026?

The Vaal supplies Gauteng and can hold more than 100% of its official capacity after good rain. It has been sitting just above the line. This asks whether it holds.

72c
market-implied chance of yes
CLOSES 05 OCT 2026, 00:00 SASTDWS, weekly state of the reservoirs
screens

Will 3 or more South African shows be in the Netflix SA top 10 in the week of 06 October 2026?

Netflix publishes its South African top 10 every week. Local titles like The River and The Polygamist have been holding spots against international shows.

38c
market-implied chance of yes
CLOSES 06 OCT 2026, 06:00 SASTNetflix, South Africa top 10
utilities

Will the Vaal Dam still be over 100% full in the week of 13 October 2026?

The Vaal supplies Gauteng and can hold more than 100% of its official capacity after good rain. It has been sitting just above the line. This asks whether it holds.

72c
market-implied chance of yes
CLOSES 12 OCT 2026, 00:00 SASTDWS, weekly state of the reservoirs
screens

Will 3 or more South African shows be in the Netflix SA top 10 in the week of 13 October 2026?

Netflix publishes its South African top 10 every week. Local titles like The River and The Polygamist have been holding spots against international shows.

38c
market-implied chance of yes
CLOSES 13 OCT 2026, 06:00 SASTNetflix, South Africa top 10
utilities

Will the Vaal Dam still be over 100% full in the week of 20 October 2026?

The Vaal supplies Gauteng and can hold more than 100% of its official capacity after good rain. It has been sitting just above the line. This asks whether it holds.

72c
market-implied chance of yes
CLOSES 19 OCT 2026, 00:00 SASTDWS, weekly state of the reservoirs
screens

Will 3 or more South African shows be in the Netflix SA top 10 in the week of 20 October 2026?

Netflix publishes its South African top 10 every week. Local titles like The River and The Polygamist have been holding spots against international shows.

38c
market-implied chance of yes
CLOSES 20 OCT 2026, 06:00 SASTNetflix, South Africa top 10
money

Will inflation come in above 4.5% for September 2026?

The Reserve Bank now steers towards 3%, having moved off the old 3 to 6% band whose midpoint was 4.5%. That makes 4.5% the line between uncomfortable and alarming rather than the target itself. June 2026 came in at 5.0%.

68c
market-implied chance of yes
CLOSES 23 OCT 2026, 09:00 SASTStats SA, Consumer Price Index
utilities

Will the Vaal Dam still be over 100% full in the week of 27 October 2026?

The Vaal supplies Gauteng and can hold more than 100% of its official capacity after good rain. It has been sitting just above the line. This asks whether it holds.

72c
market-implied chance of yes
CLOSES 26 OCT 2026, 00:00 SASTDWS, weekly state of the reservoirs
money

Will the petrol price go up in November 2026?

The petrol price is reset at the start of every month by the Department of Mineral and Petroleum Resources, driven by the oil price and the rand. Any increase at all resolves this Yes.

42c
market-implied chance of yes
CLOSES 26 OCT 2026, 06:00 SASTDMPR, monthly fuel price
screens

Will 3 or more South African shows be in the Netflix SA top 10 in the week of 27 October 2026?

Netflix publishes its South African top 10 every week. Local titles like The River and The Polygamist have been holding spots against international shows.

38c
market-implied chance of yes
CLOSES 27 OCT 2026, 06:00 SASTNetflix, South Africa top 10
sport

Will Orlando Pirates beat Kaizer Chiefs on 31 October 2026?

The Soweto Derby, at FNB Stadium, with Pirates the home side. They are the defending champions after ending Sundowns' eight-year run last season. A draw resolves No. The PSL has not announced a kick-off time yet, so trading closes at 14:00, before the earliest slot the league uses.

44c
market-implied chance of yes
CLOSES 31 OCT 2026, 14:00 SASTPremier Soccer League
utilities

Will Cape Town hit 35°C in October 2026?

Measured at the Cape Town International Airport station, which is the official record for the city. One hot day is all it takes.

30c
market-implied chance of yes
CLOSES 31 OCT 2026, 23:59 SASTSouth African Weather Service
utilities

Will Eskom implement any load-shedding in October 2026?

South Africa has gone more than 440 days without load-shedding, the last cut being 16 May 2025, and Eskom met demand 100% of the time from April to July. One hour of Stage 1 anywhere in the month resolves this Yes.

12c
market-implied chance of yes
CLOSES 31 OCT 2026, 23:59 SASTEskom, power system status
utilities

Will the Vaal Dam still be over 100% full in the week of 03 November 2026?

The Vaal supplies Gauteng and can hold more than 100% of its official capacity after good rain. It has been sitting just above the line. This asks whether it holds.

72c
market-implied chance of yes
CLOSES 02 NOV 2026, 00:00 SASTDWS, weekly state of the reservoirs
screens

Will 3 or more South African shows be in the Netflix SA top 10 in the week of 03 November 2026?

Netflix publishes its South African top 10 every week. Local titles like The River and The Polygamist have been holding spots against international shows.

38c
market-implied chance of yes
CLOSES 03 NOV 2026, 06:00 SASTNetflix, South Africa top 10
the vote

Will the ANC get less than 40% in the 04 November 2026 local elections?

The ANC took 64.8% in 2011, 53.9% in 2016 and 45.6% in 2021, roughly nine points a cycle. It got 40.2% at the 2024 national election. 40% is the line everyone is watching.

62c
market-implied chance of yes
CLOSES 04 NOV 2026, 06:00 SASTIEC, election results
the vote

Will more than 66 councils be hung after the 04 November 2026 local elections?

Hung councils went from about 30 in 2016 to 66 in 2021, and coalition chaos has defined local government ever since. This asks whether it gets worse again.

65c
market-implied chance of yes
CLOSES 04 NOV 2026, 06:00 SASTIEC, seat allocations
the vote

Will turnout beat 47.1% at the 04 November 2026 local elections?

Turnout was 45.79% in 2021, the lowest since 1994, down from 57.94% in 2016. This market asks for 47.1%, which is a bar deliberately set above the last result rather than level with it: not just a recovery, a real one.

45c
market-implied chance of yes
CLOSES 04 NOV 2026, 06:00 SASTIEC, election results
the vote

Will the DA get more than 25% in the 04 November 2026 local elections?

The DA took 21.6% in 2021 and 21.8% at the 2024 national election. It has barely moved in a decade. 25% would be a genuine breakout rather than the usual shuffle.

35c
market-implied chance of yes
CLOSES 04 NOV 2026, 06:00 SASTIEC, election results
the vote

Will the EFF get more than 12% in the 04 November 2026 local elections?

The EFF took 10.3% in 2021 and about 9.5% at the 2024 national election. MK has been feeding on the same base since. 12% would mean the decline has stopped.

35c
market-implied chance of yes
CLOSES 04 NOV 2026, 06:00 SASTIEC, election results
the vote

Will the MK Party get more than 10% in the 04 November 2026 local elections?

MK did not exist in 2021. It took about 15% at the 2024 national election, most of it in KwaZulu-Natal, and this is its first local government election. National support does not automatically become ward support, and nobody knows the conversion rate.

45c
market-implied chance of yes
CLOSES 04 NOV 2026, 06:00 SASTIEC, election results
the vote

Will any single party get more than 50% nationally in the 04 November 2026 local elections?

The ANC last cleared half at 53.9% in 2016. It managed 45.6% in 2021 and 40.2% at the 2024 national election. No other party has ever come close. This is the question of whether anyone still commands a majority of South Africans.

8c
market-implied chance of yes
CLOSES 04 NOV 2026, 06:00 SASTIEC, election results
the vote

Will the Johannesburg council be hung after the 04 November 2026 local elections?

Johannesburg has been hung since 2016 and has churned through mayors ever since. Whether that is now permanent is the single most consequential local government question in the country.

85c
market-implied chance of yes
CLOSES 04 NOV 2026, 06:00 SASTIEC, election results
the vote

Will the DA win an outright majority in Cape Town in the 04 November 2026 local elections?

Cape Town is the one metro that has not spent a decade in coalition chaos, and the DA's outright hold on it is the party's central claim to competence. ActionSA and the Patriotic Alliance are both spending money there.

75c
market-implied chance of yes
CLOSES 04 NOV 2026, 06:00 SASTIEC, election results
the vote

Will the ANC get less than 40% in eThekwini in the 04 November 2026 local elections?

KwaZulu-Natal is where MK did the most damage in 2024, and eThekwini is the prize. This is the clearest test of whether that was a national protest vote or a permanent realignment.

55c
market-implied chance of yes
CLOSES 04 NOV 2026, 06:00 SASTIEC, election results
the vote

Will turnout be below 40% at the 04 November 2026 local elections?

Turnout was 45.79% in 2021 and 57.94% in 2016. Below 40% would be a collapse, and would say more about how South Africans feel about local government than any party's result.

25c
market-implied chance of yes
CLOSES 04 NOV 2026, 06:00 SASTIEC, election results
utilities

Will the Vaal Dam still be over 100% full in the week of 10 November 2026?

The Vaal supplies Gauteng and can hold more than 100% of its official capacity after good rain. It has been sitting just above the line. This asks whether it holds.

72c
market-implied chance of yes
CLOSES 09 NOV 2026, 00:00 SASTDWS, weekly state of the reservoirs
screens

Will 3 or more South African shows be in the Netflix SA top 10 in the week of 10 November 2026?

Netflix publishes its South African top 10 every week. Local titles like The River and The Polygamist have been holding spots against international shows.

38c
market-implied chance of yes
CLOSES 10 NOV 2026, 06:00 SASTNetflix, South Africa top 10
money

Will house price inflation beat 4% for August 2026?

Stats SA builds this index from every single property transfer registered at the Deeds Office, not estate agent estimates. It is the closest thing to a true national house price.

62c
market-implied chance of yes
CLOSES 15 NOV 2026, 09:00 SASTStats SA, Residential Property Price Index
utilities

Will the Vaal Dam still be over 100% full in the week of 17 November 2026?

The Vaal supplies Gauteng and can hold more than 100% of its official capacity after good rain. It has been sitting just above the line. This asks whether it holds.

72c
market-implied chance of yes
CLOSES 16 NOV 2026, 00:00 SASTDWS, weekly state of the reservoirs
screens

Will 3 or more South African shows be in the Netflix SA top 10 in the week of 17 November 2026?

Netflix publishes its South African top 10 every week. Local titles like The River and The Polygamist have been holding spots against international shows.

38c
market-implied chance of yes
CLOSES 17 NOV 2026, 06:00 SASTNetflix, South Africa top 10
money

Will inflation come in above 4.5% for October 2026?

The Reserve Bank now steers towards 3%, having moved off the old 3 to 6% band whose midpoint was 4.5%. That makes 4.5% the line between uncomfortable and alarming rather than the target itself. June 2026 came in at 5.0%.

68c
market-implied chance of yes
CLOSES 23 NOV 2026, 09:00 SASTStats SA, Consumer Price Index
screens

Will 3 or more South African shows be in the Netflix SA top 10 in the week of 24 November 2026?

Netflix publishes its South African top 10 every week. Local titles like The River and The Polygamist have been holding spots against international shows.

38c
market-implied chance of yes
CLOSES 24 NOV 2026, 06:00 SASTNetflix, South Africa top 10
utilities

Will Cape Town hit 35°C in November 2026?

Measured at the Cape Town International Airport station, which is the official record for the city. One hot day is all it takes.

30c
market-implied chance of yes
CLOSES 30 NOV 2026, 23:59 SASTSouth African Weather Service
utilities

Will Eskom implement any load-shedding in November 2026?

South Africa has gone more than 440 days without load-shedding, the last cut being 16 May 2025, and Eskom met demand 100% of the time from April to July. One hour of Stage 1 anywhere in the month resolves this Yes.

12c
market-implied chance of yes
CLOSES 30 NOV 2026, 23:59 SASTEskom, power system status
money

Will house price inflation beat 4% for September 2026?

Stats SA builds this index from every single property transfer registered at the Deeds Office, not estate agent estimates. It is the closest thing to a true national house price.

62c
market-implied chance of yes
CLOSES 15 DEC 2026, 09:00 SASTStats SA, Residential Property Price Index
money

Will inflation come in above 4.5% for November 2026?

The Reserve Bank now steers towards 3%, having moved off the old 3 to 6% band whose midpoint was 4.5%. That makes 4.5% the line between uncomfortable and alarming rather than the target itself. June 2026 came in at 5.0%.

68c
market-implied chance of yes
CLOSES 23 DEC 2026, 09:00 SASTStats SA, Consumer Price Index