Leaderboard

Nothing has settled yet, so nothing is scored. The boards below fill in on their own as questions resolve.

115days left in Season One, ends election week, 30 November 2026. How you are scored

On the board now

Who is playing. Not a skill board, just who turned up.

Nobody has placed a call yet.

Why this one

Ranked on how much of the catalogue you have touched. Range across the board is what this season exists to measure, so it is worth showing even before anything has been graded.

Calibration, the one that counts

How close your prices were to what actually happened. Lower is better. 0.25 is a coin flip.

Nobody has settled a call yet.

Why this one

Backing a 95c favourite that loses costs you about four times what a cautious 55c call costs. That is deliberate: it is the only board you cannot farm by buying longshots and getting lucky once, which is why it is the headline.

Edge

What you made for every rand you risked.

Nobody has settled a call yet.

Why this one

A ratio rather than a total, so a big bankroll and a lot of volume do not flatter it. It measures how far you beat the price you traded at, not how much you traded.

Breadth

How much of the board you have played. Needs 4 areas to qualify.

Nobody has settled a call yet.

Why this one

Capped at 10 settled calls per area, so range beats volume: 10 calls in one area score the same as 30. Ties break on calibration, so it cannot reward being wrong everywhere.

Accuracy

How often you were simply right.

Nobody has settled a call yet.

Why this one

Easy to farm by only ever backing favourites, which is why no season board ranks on it. Here because people want to know.

Profit

Play money won and lost.

Nobody has settled a call yet.

Why this one

Rewards volume and a big bankroll as much as judgement, and one lucky longshot most of all. For interest only. No season board ranks on it.

How a thin record is ranked

Ranking on a raw score would put whoever got one lucky call right at the top of the board and keep them there. Hiding everyone until they reach 15 settled questions would leave this page empty for the first month of the season. Neither is much use.

So each score is pulled toward the score of someone who knows nothing, by how little evidence stands behind it:

ranked = (n × yours + 10 × baseline) ÷ (n + 10)

One perfect call ranks near a coin flip. Fifteen good ones rank near their true score. The number in the table is always your real score, unadjusted; only the order of the list uses the formula above, and the pre-registered analysis uses the real one throughout.