The DA took 21.6% in 2021 and 21.8% at the 2024 national election. It has barely moved in a decade. 25% would be a genuine breakout rather than the usual shuffle.
A YES bid at 33c and a NO bid at 63c meet when they add to 100. That pair funds one contract between them.
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This market resolves YES if the Democratic Alliance share of total national valid votes on the proportional representation ballot, as declared by the Electoral Commission, is above 25.0%. It resolves NO in every other case.
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