KwaZulu-Natal is where MK did the most damage in 2024, and eThekwini is the prize. This is the clearest test of whether that was a national protest vote or a permanent realignment.
A YES bid at 53c and a NO bid at 43c meet when they add to 100. That pair funds one contract between them.
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This market resolves YES if the African National Congress share of total valid votes on the proportional representation ballot in the eThekwini Metropolitan Municipality, as declared by the Electoral Commission, is below 40.0%. It resolves NO in every other case.
A person reads every one of these. Tell us what happened and we will come back to you.