The ANC last cleared half at 53.9% in 2016. It managed 45.6% in 2021 and 40.2% at the 2024 national election. No other party has ever come close. This is the question of whether anyone still commands a majority of South Africans.
A YES bid at 6c and a NO bid at 90c meet when they add to 100. That pair funds one contract between them.
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This market resolves YES if any single party's share of total national valid votes on the proportional representation ballot, as declared by the Electoral Commission, is above 50.0%. It resolves NO in every other case.
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