MK did not exist in 2021. It took about 15% at the 2024 national election, most of it in KwaZulu-Natal, and this is its first local government election. National support does not automatically become ward support, and nobody knows the conversion rate.
A YES bid at 43c and a NO bid at 53c meet when they add to 100. That pair funds one contract between them.
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This market resolves YES if the uMkhonto weSizwe Party share of total national valid votes on the proportional representation ballot, as declared by the Electoral Commission, is above 10.0%. It resolves NO in every other case.
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