Turnout was 45.79% in 2021 and 57.94% in 2016. Below 40% would be a collapse, and would say more about how South Africans feel about local government than any party's result.
A YES bid at 23c and a NO bid at 73c meet when they add to 100. That pair funds one contract between them.
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This market resolves YES if national voter turnout declared by the Electoral Commission is below 40.0% of registered voters. It resolves NO in every other case.
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