Open questions

22 questions in utilities. Every one has a yes or no answer, a date, and a source you can check yourself. Why so few?

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This week 1

utilities

Will the Vaal Dam still be over 100% full in the week of 11 August 2026?

The Vaal supplies Gauteng and can hold more than 100% of its official capacity after good rain. It has been sitting just above the line. This asks whether it holds.

72c
market-implied chance of yes
CLOSES 10 AUG 2026, 00:00 SASTDWS, weekly state of the reservoirs

This month 5

utilities

Will the Vaal Dam still be over 100% full in the week of 18 August 2026?

The Vaal supplies Gauteng and can hold more than 100% of its official capacity after good rain. It has been sitting just above the line. This asks whether it holds.

72c
market-implied chance of yes
CLOSES 17 AUG 2026, 00:00 SASTDWS, weekly state of the reservoirs
utilities

Will the Vaal Dam still be over 100% full in the week of 25 August 2026?

The Vaal supplies Gauteng and can hold more than 100% of its official capacity after good rain. It has been sitting just above the line. This asks whether it holds.

72c
market-implied chance of yes
CLOSES 24 AUG 2026, 00:00 SASTDWS, weekly state of the reservoirs
utilities

Will the Vaal Dam still be over 100% full in the week of 01 September 2026?

The Vaal supplies Gauteng and can hold more than 100% of its official capacity after good rain. It has been sitting just above the line. This asks whether it holds.

72c
market-implied chance of yes
CLOSES 31 AUG 2026, 00:00 SASTDWS, weekly state of the reservoirs
utilities

Will Eskom implement any load-shedding in August 2026?

South Africa has gone more than 440 days without load-shedding, the last cut being 16 May 2025, and Eskom met demand 100% of the time from April to July. One hour of Stage 1 anywhere in the month resolves this Yes.

12c
market-implied chance of yes
CLOSES 31 AUG 2026, 23:59 SASTEskom, power system status
utilities

Will the Vaal Dam still be over 100% full in the week of 08 September 2026?

The Vaal supplies Gauteng and can hold more than 100% of its official capacity after good rain. It has been sitting just above the line. This asks whether it holds.

72c
market-implied chance of yes
CLOSES 07 SEP 2026, 00:00 SASTDWS, weekly state of the reservoirs

Later 16

utilities

Will the Vaal Dam still be over 100% full in the week of 15 September 2026?

The Vaal supplies Gauteng and can hold more than 100% of its official capacity after good rain. It has been sitting just above the line. This asks whether it holds.

72c
market-implied chance of yes
CLOSES 14 SEP 2026, 00:00 SASTDWS, weekly state of the reservoirs
utilities

Will the Vaal Dam still be over 100% full in the week of 22 September 2026?

The Vaal supplies Gauteng and can hold more than 100% of its official capacity after good rain. It has been sitting just above the line. This asks whether it holds.

72c
market-implied chance of yes
CLOSES 21 SEP 2026, 00:00 SASTDWS, weekly state of the reservoirs
utilities

Will the Vaal Dam still be over 100% full in the week of 29 September 2026?

The Vaal supplies Gauteng and can hold more than 100% of its official capacity after good rain. It has been sitting just above the line. This asks whether it holds.

72c
market-implied chance of yes
CLOSES 28 SEP 2026, 00:00 SASTDWS, weekly state of the reservoirs
utilities

Will Cape Town hit 35°C in September 2026?

Measured at the Cape Town International Airport station, which is the official record for the city. One hot day is all it takes.

30c
market-implied chance of yes
CLOSES 30 SEP 2026, 23:59 SASTSouth African Weather Service
utilities

Will Eskom implement any load-shedding in September 2026?

South Africa has gone more than 440 days without load-shedding, the last cut being 16 May 2025, and Eskom met demand 100% of the time from April to July. One hour of Stage 1 anywhere in the month resolves this Yes.

12c
market-implied chance of yes
CLOSES 30 SEP 2026, 23:59 SASTEskom, power system status
utilities

Will the Vaal Dam still be over 100% full in the week of 06 October 2026?

The Vaal supplies Gauteng and can hold more than 100% of its official capacity after good rain. It has been sitting just above the line. This asks whether it holds.

72c
market-implied chance of yes
CLOSES 05 OCT 2026, 00:00 SASTDWS, weekly state of the reservoirs
utilities

Will the Vaal Dam still be over 100% full in the week of 13 October 2026?

The Vaal supplies Gauteng and can hold more than 100% of its official capacity after good rain. It has been sitting just above the line. This asks whether it holds.

72c
market-implied chance of yes
CLOSES 12 OCT 2026, 00:00 SASTDWS, weekly state of the reservoirs
utilities

Will the Vaal Dam still be over 100% full in the week of 20 October 2026?

The Vaal supplies Gauteng and can hold more than 100% of its official capacity after good rain. It has been sitting just above the line. This asks whether it holds.

72c
market-implied chance of yes
CLOSES 19 OCT 2026, 00:00 SASTDWS, weekly state of the reservoirs
utilities

Will the Vaal Dam still be over 100% full in the week of 27 October 2026?

The Vaal supplies Gauteng and can hold more than 100% of its official capacity after good rain. It has been sitting just above the line. This asks whether it holds.

72c
market-implied chance of yes
CLOSES 26 OCT 2026, 00:00 SASTDWS, weekly state of the reservoirs
utilities

Will Cape Town hit 35°C in October 2026?

Measured at the Cape Town International Airport station, which is the official record for the city. One hot day is all it takes.

30c
market-implied chance of yes
CLOSES 31 OCT 2026, 23:59 SASTSouth African Weather Service
utilities

Will Eskom implement any load-shedding in October 2026?

South Africa has gone more than 440 days without load-shedding, the last cut being 16 May 2025, and Eskom met demand 100% of the time from April to July. One hour of Stage 1 anywhere in the month resolves this Yes.

12c
market-implied chance of yes
CLOSES 31 OCT 2026, 23:59 SASTEskom, power system status
utilities

Will the Vaal Dam still be over 100% full in the week of 03 November 2026?

The Vaal supplies Gauteng and can hold more than 100% of its official capacity after good rain. It has been sitting just above the line. This asks whether it holds.

72c
market-implied chance of yes
CLOSES 02 NOV 2026, 00:00 SASTDWS, weekly state of the reservoirs
utilities

Will the Vaal Dam still be over 100% full in the week of 10 November 2026?

The Vaal supplies Gauteng and can hold more than 100% of its official capacity after good rain. It has been sitting just above the line. This asks whether it holds.

72c
market-implied chance of yes
CLOSES 09 NOV 2026, 00:00 SASTDWS, weekly state of the reservoirs
utilities

Will the Vaal Dam still be over 100% full in the week of 17 November 2026?

The Vaal supplies Gauteng and can hold more than 100% of its official capacity after good rain. It has been sitting just above the line. This asks whether it holds.

72c
market-implied chance of yes
CLOSES 16 NOV 2026, 00:00 SASTDWS, weekly state of the reservoirs
utilities

Will Cape Town hit 35°C in November 2026?

Measured at the Cape Town International Airport station, which is the official record for the city. One hot day is all it takes.

30c
market-implied chance of yes
CLOSES 30 NOV 2026, 23:59 SASTSouth African Weather Service
utilities

Will Eskom implement any load-shedding in November 2026?

South Africa has gone more than 440 days without load-shedding, the last cut being 16 May 2025, and Eskom met demand 100% of the time from April to July. One hour of Stage 1 anywhere in the month resolves this Yes.

12c
market-implied chance of yes
CLOSES 30 NOV 2026, 23:59 SASTEskom, power system status