Open questions

Will the Madlanga Commission deliver its final report by 16 November 2026?

The inquiry into police and organised crime, set up after Lieutenant-General Mkhwanazi's allegations. Its reporting deadline was extended in July from 31 August to 16 November, with evidence closing on 2 October. Trading stops at the evidence deadline, because the report can be handed over any time after that.

Will the ANC get less than 40% in the 04 November 2026 local elections?

The ANC took 64.8% in 2011, 53.9% in 2016 and 45.6% in 2021, roughly nine points a cycle. It got 40.2% at the 2024 national election. 40% is the line everyone is watching.

Will more than 66 councils be hung after the 04 November 2026 local elections?

Hung councils went from about 30 in 2016 to 66 in 2021, and coalition chaos has defined local government ever since. This asks whether it gets worse again.

Will turnout beat 47.1% at the 04 November 2026 local elections?

Turnout was 45.79% in 2021, the lowest since 1994, down from 57.94% in 2016. This market asks for 47.1%, which is a bar deliberately set above the last result rather than level with it: not just a recovery, a real one.

Will the DA get more than 25% in the 04 November 2026 local elections?

The DA took 21.6% in 2021 and 21.8% at the 2024 national election. It has barely moved in a decade. 25% would be a genuine breakout rather than the usual shuffle.

Will the EFF get more than 12% in the 04 November 2026 local elections?

The EFF took 10.3% in 2021 and about 9.5% at the 2024 national election. MK has been feeding on the same base since. 12% would mean the decline has stopped.

Will the MK Party get more than 10% in the 04 November 2026 local elections?

MK did not exist in 2021. It took about 15% at the 2024 national election, most of it in KwaZulu-Natal, and this is its first local government election. National support does not automatically become ward support, and nobody knows the conversion rate.

Will any single party get more than 50% nationally in the 04 November 2026 local elections?

The ANC last cleared half at 53.9% in 2016. It managed 45.6% in 2021 and 40.2% at the 2024 national election. No other party has ever come close. This is the question of whether anyone still commands a majority of South Africans.

Will the Johannesburg council be hung after the 04 November 2026 local elections?

Johannesburg has been hung since 2016 and has churned through mayors ever since. Whether that is now permanent is the single most consequential local government question in the country.

Will the DA win an outright majority in Cape Town in the 04 November 2026 local elections?

Cape Town is the one metro that has not spent a decade in coalition chaos, and the DA's outright hold on it is the party's central claim to competence. ActionSA and the Patriotic Alliance are both spending money there.

Will the ANC get less than 40% in eThekwini in the 04 November 2026 local elections?

KwaZulu-Natal is where MK did the most damage in 2024, and eThekwini is the prize. This is the clearest test of whether that was a national protest vote or a permanent realignment.

Will turnout be below 40% at the 04 November 2026 local elections?

Turnout was 45.79% in 2021 and 57.94% in 2016. Below 40% would be a collapse, and would say more about how South Africans feel about local government than any party's result.